Climate effects on emerging economies

This project investigates how increasing frequency and intensity of extreme El Niño events—exacerbated by climate change—may affect economic stability and sovereign debt risk in vulnerable nations. By examining historical and projected meteorological, hydrological, and ecological impacts of El Niño events, the project explores their influence on key economic indicators such as GDP, inflation, and sector-level recovery timelines. Through a collaboration between Johns Hopkins University and T. Rowe Price, the work integrates climate data, economic modeling, and sovereign debt analysis to assess how weather-related shocks propagate through national economies. The ultimate objective is to understand how climate-driven disruptions may influence borrowing costs and default risk, and to explore the role of adaptation and blue finance as mitigation strategies.