FIRE-WUI: A Convergence Framework for Modeling Collective Human Behavior in Wildfire Evacuation

Summary

Strengthening wildfire resilience requires accurate modeling and a deep understanding of collective human behavior during wildfire evacuations. In particular, there is a critical need for simulation models that can realistically capture how civilians, incident commanders, and public safety officials make protective action decisions during wildfires. However, existing simulation models face fundamental limitations that often cause low prediction accuracy and insufficient capacity to support effective decision-making during wildfire response. Therefore, this project aims to develop a convergent framework for next-generation wildfire evacuation simulation that features realistic Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents powered by psychological theory-informed large language models (LLMs), reinforcement learning, and multi-modal datasets. This research is a transformative step toward improving the behavioral realism, prediction accuracy, and decision-support capability of wildfire evacuation simulation models. This project will also lead to generalizable simulation methods, promote teaching, training, and learning, strengthen partnerships, and support wildfire resilience through broad dissemination and open-access tools.

Related Publications

  1. Chen, R., Wang, C., Sun, Y., Zhao, X., & Xu, S., 2025. From perceptions to decisions: Wildfire evacuation decision prediction with behavioral theory-informed LLMs. In Proceedings of the 63rd Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers), pages 29754–29778, Vienna, Austria. Association for Computational Linguistics (ACL Main Conference)
  2. Jiang, S., Kuligowski, E. D., Lovreglio, R., Cova, T. J., Xu, S., & Zhao, X. (2025). Analyzing Wildfire Evacuation Behavior Using Facebook Data: A Case Study of the 2025 Palisades and Eaton Fires. Under review at International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
  3. Sun, Y., Xu, S., Wang, C., & Zhao, X. (2025). Where You Go is Who You Are: Behavioral Theory-Guided LLMs for Inverse Reinforcement Learning. Under review at Transportation Research Part D.
  4. Graces, S., Kuligowski, E. D., Lovreglio, R., Cova, T. J., Xu, S., & Zhao, X. (2025). A Systematic Literature Review for Wildfire Emergency Management Platforms. Under review at Fire Technology

Funding Agencies

Collaborating Agencies