“Modeling Strategic Behavior in Global Energy Markets- the Role of OPEC and the Impact of US Climate Policy” seminar @ 402 Ames Hall
Nov 5 @ 12:00 pm – 1:00 pm
"Modeling Strategic Behavior in Global Energy Markets- the Role of OPEC and the Impact of US Climate Policy" seminar @ 402 Ames Hall | Baltimore | Maryland | United States

Dr. Daniel Huppmann studied Mathematics at the Vienna University of Technology, where he earned an MSc degree in 2010. He joined the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) as a student research assistant in 2008, started in DIW’s graduate (PhD) program in October 2011 and successfully defended his dissertation at the TU Berlin in June 2014. He is currently a Research Associate in the department Energy-Transportation-Environment at DIW Berlin. In his research, Daniel works at the intersection of Operations Research, game theory, and energy economics, with a focus on multi-stage games in the global crude oil and natural gas markets, and strategic investment in electricity networks.


Modeling Strategic Behavior in Global Energy Markets- the Role of OPEC and the Impact of US Climate Policy (abstract)

The first part of the talk focuses on the global crude oil market, in particular the role of OPEC, and the difficulty of properly capturing strategic behavior in real-world applications using equilibrium modeling. This article proposes a two-stage oligopoly model: in a game of several Stackelberg leaders, market power increases endogenously as the spare capacity of the competitive fringe goes down. This effect is due to the specific cost function characteristics of extractive industries. The model captures the increase of OPEC market power before the financial crisis and its drastic reduction in the subsequent turmoil at the onset of the global recession.The two-stage model better replicates the price path over the years 2003-2011 compared to a standard simultaneous-move, one-stage Nash-Cournot model with a fringe. This article also discusses how most large-scale numerical equilibrium models, widely applied in the energy sector, over-simplify and potentially misinterpret market power exertion.

The second part of the talk presents a large-scale global dynamic energy system and resource market equilibrium model (“MultiMod”). It combines endogenous fuel substitution within demand sectors and in power generation, detailed infrastructure capacity constraints and investment, as well as strategic behavior and market power aspects by suppliers in a unified framework. This model is the first-of-its-kind in which market power is exerted across several fuels. It bridges the divide between energy system models, focusing on fuel substitution and technology options, and sector specific models that have a detailed representation of infrastructure constraints and are able to capture strategic behavior. The model allows assessing and quantifying the impact of national or global climate policy and emission reduction targets on the global energy mix over the next decades. In the talk, Daniel will present current results from the Energy Modeling Forum, Round 31 (“North American Natural Gas and Energy Markets in Transition”), focusing on the impact of US shale gas scenarios and domestic energy policy (such as Technology Portfolio Standards) on global energy consumption patterns and the resulting import dependency and trade flows.

“Systems Life Cycle Design Approach to Green Design and Energy Sustainability” seminar by Dr. Harrison Kim @ 234 Ames Hall
Nov 18 @ 3:00 pm – 4:00 pm

Dr. Harrison Kim is an Associate Professor in the Department of Industrial and Enterprise Systems Engineering at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) with appointment at the Beckman Institute and the Computational Science and Engineering. Dr. Kim’s research focuses on a variety of areas of complex systems design and large-scale computation and optimization. Dr. Kim’s current research topics are energy systems engineering; renewable, hybrid energy conversion and distribution; user-centered sustainable product design; product design analytics; multidisciplinary, multilevel optimization; green design. Application areas are automotive, consumer electronics, heavy-duty equipment, national security, commercial/military system of systems, and information technology. Dr. Kim has received numerous recognitions including the National Science Foundation’s CAREER Award, Dean’s Award in Excellence in Research (Xerox Award), Best Paper Award in ASME Design for Manufacturing and Life Cycle Conference, and news media coverage in the USA Today and the Chicago Tribune. Harrison Kim earned his Ph.D. degree at the University of Michigan in 2001 in the area of Engineering System Design and Optimization in Mechanical Engineering under the supervision of Prof. Panos Papalambros. He joined the University of Illinois in 2005 after Business-IT consulting experience and postdoctoral training under Prof. Wei Chen at Northwestern University and has been leading the Enterprise Systems Optimization Lab.



Systems Life Cycle Design Approach to Green Design and Energy Sustainability (abstract)
Emerging interest in the renewable energy sources has garnered new contributions in energy systems engineering. Designing renewable energy generation systems, however, brings additional layer of challenges in that it is impossible to assess and predict exogenous conditions accurately. Hybrid power generation systems (HPGS), with respect to this challenge, can bring a new level of technical and economic performance of power supply by mitigating the effect of uncertainties. Kim’s team recently developed a new suite of systems design methodologies for single HPGS and hybrid energy farms that overcome non-smooth logical disjunction by use of multidisciplinary design optimization with complementarity constraints and various risk and reliability measures. The methods also utilize multi-stage programming model and design analytics capabilities for predicting system behavior in the near future time horizon. In this presentation, the speaker will present the findings from the recent studies sponsored by NSF and industrial partners (Caterpillar and Deere) in collaboration with the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) and introduce newly emerging topics in renewable energy systems engineering.

Center for Systems Science and Engineering