John Doyle (Caltech): Universal Laws and Architectures: brains, bugs, nets, dance, art, music, literature, fashion, and zombies
Complex networks arise in a wide range of applications from neuroscience and cell biology to the internet and social networks. The commonalities in these problems are often either overlooked or oversimplified while domain experts tend to apply different “languages” and mathematical “tools” to them. This talk will focus on progress towards a more “unified” theory for complex networks. The approaches described are motivated by neuroscience, cell biology, and technology, and involving several elements: hard limits on achievable robust performance ( “laws”), the organizing principles that succeed or fail in achieving them (architectures and protocols), the resulting high variability data observed in real systems and in case studies (behavior, data), and the processes by which systems evolve (variation, selection, design). We will leverage a series of case studies from neuroscience, cell biology, human physiology, and technology to illustrate the implications of recent theoretical developments, also drawing on hopefully familiar examples from dance, art, music, literature, fashion, and the recent popular obsession with zombies. More info
Dr. Yaneer Bar-Yam is the founder and president of the New England Complex Systems Institute. He received his SB and PhD in physics from MIT in 1978 and 1984 respectively. His work explores the origins and impacts of market crashes, ethnic violence, military conflict and pandemics, analyzes social networks, as well as the bases of creativity, panics, evolution and altruism. His work on the causes of the global food crisis was cited as among the top 10 scientific discoveries of 2011 by Wired magazine. Dr. Bar-Yam has advised governments, NGOs, and corporations on using principles and insights from complex systems science to solve seemingly intractable problems. He is the author of two books: his textbook Dynamics of Complex Systems, which he has taught to over 2,000 graduate students, professionals and executives, and Making Things Work, which describes the use of complex systems science for solving problems in healthcare, education, systems engineering, international development, and ethnic conflict.
Dr. Daniel Huppmann studied Mathematics at the Vienna University of Technology, where he earned an MSc degree in 2010. He joined the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) as a student research assistant in 2008, started in DIW’s graduate (PhD) program in October 2011 and successfully defended his dissertation at the TU Berlin in June 2014. He is currently a Research Associate in the department Energy-Transportation-Environment at DIW Berlin. In his research, Daniel works at the intersection of Operations Research, game theory, and energy economics, with a focus on multi-stage games in the global crude oil and natural gas markets, and strategic investment in electricity networks.
Modeling Strategic Behavior in Global Energy Markets- the Role of OPEC and the Impact of US Climate Policy (abstract)
The first part of the talk focuses on the global crude oil market, in particular the role of OPEC, and the difficulty of properly capturing strategic behavior in real-world applications using equilibrium modeling. This article proposes a two-stage oligopoly model: in a game of several Stackelberg leaders, market power increases endogenously as the spare capacity of the competitive fringe goes down. This effect is due to the specific cost function characteristics of extractive industries. The model captures the increase of OPEC market power before the financial crisis and its drastic reduction in the subsequent turmoil at the onset of the global recession.The two-stage model better replicates the price path over the years 2003-2011 compared to a standard simultaneous-move, one-stage Nash-Cournot model with a fringe. This article also discusses how most large-scale numerical equilibrium models, widely applied in the energy sector, over-simplify and potentially misinterpret market power exertion.
The second part of the talk presents a large-scale global dynamic energy system and resource market equilibrium model (“MultiMod”). It combines endogenous fuel substitution within demand sectors and in power generation, detailed infrastructure capacity constraints and investment, as well as strategic behavior and market power aspects by suppliers in a unified framework. This model is the first-of-its-kind in which market power is exerted across several fuels. It bridges the divide between energy system models, focusing on fuel substitution and technology options, and sector specific models that have a detailed representation of infrastructure constraints and are able to capture strategic behavior. The model allows assessing and quantifying the impact of national or global climate policy and emission reduction targets on the global energy mix over the next decades. In the talk, Daniel will present current results from the Energy Modeling Forum, Round 31 (“North American Natural Gas and Energy Markets in Transition”), focusing on the impact of US shale gas scenarios and domestic energy policy (such as Technology Portfolio Standards) on global energy consumption patterns and the resulting import dependency and trade flows.
Join the Johns Hopkins Center for Injury Research and Policy for their next Graduate Seminar, featuring Dr. Soames Job of the World Bank. Dr. Job is the Global Lead for Road Safety and he will be discussing the “Safe System Approach for Road Safety” as part of the Engineering Approach to Safety series. This event is being hosted by the Bloomberg School of Public Health and will be held this coming Monday, February 29.
All are welcome to attend!