“Modeling Public Health and Medicine: STScI Engineering & Technology” Colloquium @ John Bahcall Auditorium, Space Telescope Science Institute, Muller Building, San Martin Drive
Apr 2 @ 3:00 pm – 4:00 pm

Systems dynamics and agent-based modeling have recently been used to explore complex systems in a wide range of disciplines. This talk will begin with a quick tutorial outlining the basic principles of these computational tools. Several simulations will be shown to demonstrate the visual aspects of the methods. A few current research applications in public health and medicine at Johns Hopkins will also be described. The talk will conclude with a brief, apolitical analysis of sequestration.

Tak Igusa is the founding Director for Education and Research of the Johns Hopkins Systems Institute. He received an A.B. in Applied Mathematics at Harvard and a Ph.D. in Civil Engineering at Berkeley and was on the faculty at Northwestern University before returning to Baltimore in 1999 as a professor at Johns Hopkins. His research interests are in the application of mathematical modeling to understanding systems in public health, civil infrastructure, and medicine. His interests also include structural dynamics, acoustics, and applications of statistics and probability theory to problems in civil and mechanical engineering, and more recently in atmospheric science.

Tea & Cookies will be served at 2:45 pm

Workshop on Systems Methods for Understanding Obesity
Apr 10 @ 12:00 pm – Apr 11 @ 6:00 pm

The Education and Training Core (ETC) of the Johns Hopkins Global Center on Childhood Obesity (JHGCCO) is pleased to announce a training workshop entitled Agent-based and System Dynamics Models: New Tools for UnderstandingObesity. The workshop will begin at noon on Wednesday, April 10, and run until 6 pm on Thursday, April 11, with a dinner and reception on Wednesday night.

The workshop is intended for researchers, program staff, students, trainees, faculty and those with an interest in learning about how agent-based (ABM) and system dynamics (SD) models can be used to gain insights into the causes of, and potential solutions for, the obesity epidemic. The primary faculty for this workshop include Prof. Tak Igusa from the Johns Hopkins Systems Institute and the Whiting School of Engineering, and Prof. Thomas Glass from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. There will also be an invited lecture and discussion by Dr. Amy Auchincloss, Ph.D., MPH, Assistant Professor of Epidemiology and Biostatistics from Drexel University.

“Modeling Strategic Behavior in Global Energy Markets- the Role of OPEC and the Impact of US Climate Policy” seminar @ 402 Ames Hall
Nov 5 @ 12:00 pm – 1:00 pm
"Modeling Strategic Behavior in Global Energy Markets- the Role of OPEC and the Impact of US Climate Policy" seminar @ 402 Ames Hall | Baltimore | Maryland | United States

Dr. Daniel Huppmann studied Mathematics at the Vienna University of Technology, where he earned an MSc degree in 2010. He joined the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) as a student research assistant in 2008, started in DIW’s graduate (PhD) program in October 2011 and successfully defended his dissertation at the TU Berlin in June 2014. He is currently a Research Associate in the department Energy-Transportation-Environment at DIW Berlin. In his research, Daniel works at the intersection of Operations Research, game theory, and energy economics, with a focus on multi-stage games in the global crude oil and natural gas markets, and strategic investment in electricity networks.


Modeling Strategic Behavior in Global Energy Markets- the Role of OPEC and the Impact of US Climate Policy (abstract)

The first part of the talk focuses on the global crude oil market, in particular the role of OPEC, and the difficulty of properly capturing strategic behavior in real-world applications using equilibrium modeling. This article proposes a two-stage oligopoly model: in a game of several Stackelberg leaders, market power increases endogenously as the spare capacity of the competitive fringe goes down. This effect is due to the specific cost function characteristics of extractive industries. The model captures the increase of OPEC market power before the financial crisis and its drastic reduction in the subsequent turmoil at the onset of the global recession.The two-stage model better replicates the price path over the years 2003-2011 compared to a standard simultaneous-move, one-stage Nash-Cournot model with a fringe. This article also discusses how most large-scale numerical equilibrium models, widely applied in the energy sector, over-simplify and potentially misinterpret market power exertion.

The second part of the talk presents a large-scale global dynamic energy system and resource market equilibrium model (“MultiMod”). It combines endogenous fuel substitution within demand sectors and in power generation, detailed infrastructure capacity constraints and investment, as well as strategic behavior and market power aspects by suppliers in a unified framework. This model is the first-of-its-kind in which market power is exerted across several fuels. It bridges the divide between energy system models, focusing on fuel substitution and technology options, and sector specific models that have a detailed representation of infrastructure constraints and are able to capture strategic behavior. The model allows assessing and quantifying the impact of national or global climate policy and emission reduction targets on the global energy mix over the next decades. In the talk, Daniel will present current results from the Energy Modeling Forum, Round 31 (“North American Natural Gas and Energy Markets in Transition”), focusing on the impact of US shale gas scenarios and domestic energy policy (such as Technology Portfolio Standards) on global energy consumption patterns and the resulting import dependency and trade flows.

Center for Systems Science and Engineering